Elusive beasts swim in the sea of opportunity
I promise you that no player has ever pursued the v30 Club version of a white whale as tirelessly, recklessly, or obsessively as Captain Ahab scouring the seas for Moby Dick. Top tier hitters may save that energy for the pursuit of a golden milestone: 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, or a .400 batting average. No, the v30 Club has a certain charm in that it holds no player hostage to an unobtainable goal. However, we Ishmaels in the stands always know something about how goes the chase.
As a player amasses more and more plate appearances against a team without hitting a home run, their white whale grows larger. During the season, a white whale score is recorded for each ledger home run which counts the number of plate appearances a player had against a team before the game in which he hit a home run. Often these numbers are akin to catching a minnow in a net when a player needs just a game or two to notch his first home run. But the fish can grow to be enormous having evaded capture season after season.
Take for example this list of recently active players populated mostly by low-power hitters. These lines represent the biggest white whales waiting to be harpooned. For some players catching the whale just hasn’t happened on schedule (David Fletcher, DJ LeMahieu, and Whit Merrifield all about 130 PA “past due” on multiple opponents) while others simply bide their time in a dinghy on the ocean hoping to make an improbable strike (Myles Straw).
One name has been omitted from the list and his name would appear twice. Once, perhaps unremarkably, at the bottom of the showing a white whale score of 129 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The other instance would be at the very top and be a beast weighing 100+ plate appearances more than its nearest brethren. Over the course of 373 plate appearances, Elvis Andrus never hit a home run against the New York Yankees.
Like many things related to v30 Club, there’s nothing analytical about why this is the case. It just… didn’t happen, and it’s not for lack of trying. [Note: I’m writing this as if his career is over, which it isn’t, officially. Andrus is currently not signed with a team after failing to make the Diamondbacks roster out of spring training.]
Over the course of 15 seasons, Andrus only missed eight games against the Yankees. His career PA/HR ratio is a comparable 75.5 to others topping the whales list. However, no one else on the list approaches a +300 overdue score. There’s no explanation except he just didn’t hit a home run against the Yankees.
This futility doesn’t only show up at the top of the active-ish players list. In the Interleague era (1997 onward), the 373 plate appearances is fourth on the list. Juan Pierre and his 18 career home runs take slots 1, 2, 3, and 5 (and then two more slots in the top 11). Pierre topped out at 551 plate appearances with no home run against the Mets. And if you’re curious, the all-time largest white whale weighs in at a hefty 1,300+ PAs, but that’s a story for a different time.
Every daily Ledger Adds post tells you the White Whale score for each recorded home run. It always interesting to see the trends. Young players with a higher score are almost always hit against a division opponent where the plate appearances can pile up quickly. Veterans ledgering with a lower score generally indicate a recent league or team change. Combine those two things: players in their third, fourth, or fifth year with low whale scores might indicate an early career beset by injuries or trips back to the minor leagues. A good example from 2024 was Royce Lewis in his third season only having one plate appearance versus divisional rival Royals before hitting his home run (then getting seriously injured, again). Then there are players like Elvis Andrus who have big numbers because the whale has successfully avoided his hunter.