Hits and misses from the first month of the season
v30 Club Member Adds
Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton both made the most of their single-series opportunities in April. They became v30 Club members #77 and #78 with home runs against the White Sox and Marlins respectively. With the exception of Gary Sánchez, no other 29-ledger player had an opportunity to join in April.
Highest Likelihood Scores for Possible Inductees
Gary Sánchez (68.2) and Avisaíl García (59.9) have the highest likelihood scores. Those numbers are significantly skewed because both players need a division opponent to join the club. Sánchez has ten games to go against the Cardinals and García has thirteen potential match-ups with the Mets. However, both players are seeing limited playing time and García is on the Injured List.
Juan Soto is a much more realistic and likely possibility. Still needing the Angels and Rangers Soto is currently matching García’s likelihood mark of 59.9. Next in line is Michael Conforto who has already worked his way to 29 ledgers with homers against the Mets and Rays this season. He only needs the Astros and currently touts a 41.1 likelihood score.
The next five up players are Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (36.9, needs two teams) Justin Turner (34.2, needs one team), Corey Seager (34.1, needs one team), Adam Duval (21.0, needs one team), and (tie) Brandon Drury and Paul Goldschmidt (19.4, both need one team).
Shohei Ohtani is also sporting a healthy 18.3 likelihood score despite needing four more teams.
Notable v30 Club Misses
Once a player exhausts potential match-ups against a team they need to join the club, they enter a “Misses” category. Here are the players who had the highest ledger count coming in to 2024 but have failed to hit a home run against a needed team.
Kris Bryant missed against the Rays, Mark Canha missed against the Mets, J.T. Realmuto missed against the White Sox, José Abreu missed against the Braves, and James McCann missed against the Brewers.
Maxed Out Players
Only one player has maxed out thus far in 2024. Austin Riley of the Braves hit one against White Sox for ledger #29. The last ledger he needs is the team he currently plays for (hence the maxing out).
Riley is the first player in the v30-era to accomplish this. No other player had ever maxed their ledger with a single team. Frank Thomas and Andrew McCutchen had 28 with a single team to top the leader board previously. Riley beat notable power hitting single-franchise batters Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, and Max Muncy to the record. All of those players are a single team away and all are still able to max out in 2024.
Pete Alonso Number (a.k.a. Polar Bear Chase)
As of games through April 29, there are five players tied for the most ledger home runs in 2024. Michael Busch, Colton Cowser, Evan Carter, Jackson Chourio, and Elly De La Cruz are all tied at four home runs. Of the group, Colton Cowser has the highest Alonso-adjusted likelihood score at only half a point. Elly De La Cruz is perhaps the most intriguing of the group. Because he failed to hit a home run against the Rangers last week, he can now only tie Pete Alonso’s record and has zero room for another miss this season.