Avisaíl García’s time with the Marlins proved maddeningly improbable

It should have been a no-doubter. Every indicator pointed to Avisaíl García coasting into the v30 Club. But now he is both without a team and without a v30 Club membership.

2021 season

In the last year of his two-year contract with the Brewers García did everything he needed to do to position himself for a lucrative free agent deal in the off-season. He belted a career high 29 home runs with an OPS+ of 119 and stayed off the Injured List for the entirety of his Brewers stint (after at least six trips to the IL earlier in his career). He also notched six ledger home runs, the last being #29 against the Phillies in early September.

2021 off-season

Any team that signed García (with the exception of the Mets, his 30th ledger team) was poised to get a decent hitter who had an excellent chance to join the v30 Club. That team ended up being the Miami Marlins who signed García to a four-year deal. This was the final piece of an alignment that seemed to guarantee García would join the Club in short order.

Based on his 29 home runs and 515 plate appearances with the Brewers in 2021 and the fact that the Marlins and Mets faced off 19 times as divisional rivals in 2022, García had a nearly unheard of 97% chance to join the v30 club to start the season. And if he somehow didn’t get it in 2022, he had three more years of match-ups with the Mets.

2022 season

García had a rough start to his Marlins career. He hit the Injured List in late May but was under the Mendoza Line for most of the season before that with only three home runs. In June and July the Marlins and Mets played fourteen times. García avoided the IL but only played in eight of the games against the Mets collecting 31 plate appearances.

García played in two out of three games against the Mets in early September after another IL stint, but only had four plate appearances. Then it was back to the IL for the rest of the season where García missed the final two games between the teams.

So 2022 didn’t go as planned. In total García only hit eight home runs in 380 plate appearances and missed significant time with left hamstring issues. Perhaps 2023 would bring back the magic.

2023 Season

García’s 2022 performance resulted in him halving his likelihood score for the 2023 season and this was a combination of his stats and the reduced number of games divisional rivals played in a season because of the new balanced schedule. García sat at 48% likelihood which is still relatively high compared to others looking for their thirtieth ledger.

The Marlins and Mets squared off seven times in the season’s first eleven days. García played in all but one of these games, but still, no home run and still very limited production.

The rest of the 2023 was lowlighted with two trips to the Injured List. García missed the last three games against the Mets due to injury and ended the season with only three home runs in 118 plate appearances. Surely 2024 would turn around!

2024 Season

Buoyed by thirteen games against the Mets, García went into 2024 with a likelihood score of 22% – a score generally held by slightly above average home run hitters who only have three game chances vs an interleague opponent. He made it through most of the month of April unscathed, but found himself on the Injured List again on April 28. He missed the Marlins first three games against the Mets on May 16th through the 18th.

The Marlins designated him for assignment on June 4th ending his disastrous time in Miami. García managed only 13 home runs and a .217 average in his Marlins career. During his Marlins years he had 35 game opportunities against the Mets but only appeared in sixteen of them amassing 56 plate appearances and obviously, no home runs.

Epilogue

If you run García’s final stats with the Marlins through some questionable math he still generates a likelihood score between 43-71% for hitting a home run against the Mets. But yet, it didn’t get done.

That’s not to say that a another team won’t take a chance on him this season or in the future. Avisaíl García may still have a v30 story to write. But for now, he goes down in v30 lore as the sure shot who missed the target.