Is Pete Alonso’s record for most ledgers in a season endangered?

Pete Alonso set the record for most ledgers in a season with eighteen in 2019. The record was not challenged in 2020, 2021, or 2022. The introduction of the balanced schedule seemed to seal the deal that the record would fall since a player now had up to 29 opponents to homer against vs the 20 or 21 opponents of years past. But only one player came close in 2022; Yainer Diaz finished with seventeen ledgers.

This year Heliot Ramos feels like he could make it, but how is he stacking up to other competitors from years past? And does he pose a threat to Alonso’s record?

Let’s start by looking at the Polar Bear himself. In games through July 9, 2019, Alonso had the following ledger line:

89 out of 90 team games played / 376 plate appearances (4.2 per TmG) / 30 home runs (12.5 per PA) / 14 ledgers and six more possible

The very consistent playing time plus the 30 home runs seemed to make Alonso a sure bet to beat the previous record which was 17 ledgers by Jose Abreu. Those numbers and the Mets’ remaining schedule had the probability of Alonso tying the record at an astounding 43% and the chance of him getting 18 outright at 28%. Even the probability of Alonso clearing all twenty opponents stood at 12%. Odds were he was going to set the record, and he did.

Fast forward to 2023 where we saw several players at the top of the leader board on July 9. Spencer Steer and Josh Jung had twelve apiece. Corbin Carroll had eleven while Josh Lowe and Francisco Alvarez had ten. Yainer Diaz, who ended up leading the league with 17, had eight. Out of all the leaders Josh Jung had the best 3-game probability, so we’ll look at his ledger line.

88 out of 91 team games played / 375 plate appearances (4.1 per TmG) / 19 home runs (19.7 per PA) / 12 ledgers and ten more possible

Aside from the home run totals, Jung was running right alongside Alonso in terms of playing time. Despite having fewer ledgers he had more opportunity. But all those factors added up to giving Jung a 6% chance to tie the record and a 3% chance to get it out outright. Certainly not high odds, but getting there seemed quite plausible. But as we know neither Jung nor any other player tied or beat Alonso’s record in 2023.

Now we focus on this year’s darling – Heliot Ramos. Ramos didn’t have his 2024 season debut with the Giants until May 8, so his line looks just a bit different.

55 out of 55 team games played / 242 plate appearances (4.4 per TmG) / 13 home runs (18.6 per PA) / Nine ledgers and thirteen more possible

These are good numbers which certainly seem to line up with Jung’s numbers. But Ramos current sits at only a 1% chance to tie Alonso. Why the difference? It’s the number of ledgers he still needs. The number of teams remaining and the number of games against those teams is the biggest driver of the likelihood score. Because he still needs at least nine more ledgers, his probabilities per team compound quickly. Checking back in about a month will surely give a clearer picture.

There’s also a good feeling around Ramos due to some recency bias. Of the last ten opponents with a chance for ledger, Ramos has hit ledgers against seven of them. He missed two (Houston and Cleveland) and still has game opportunities against one. That rapid-fire ledgering just makes success feel larger.

It’s also helpful to Ramos’s cause that no other player is statistically in the running quite yet. Here are the most likely candidates as of July 9.

• Jordan Westburg leads the league with ten ledgers. His probability to tie is at 0.2%. He has ten available opponents remaining – two of which he has six games to go.

• Alec Burleson has nine ledgers and his probability to tie is 0.13%. He has no room for error with only nine available teams and his score is buoyed by eight remaining games against the Cubs and six apiece with two other teams. (as I wrote this today he added his tenth ledger, against the Royals).

• Colton Cowser also has nine ledgers but has fourteen available opponents. His probability to tie is at 0.05%.

• Jackson Chourio sits at nine home runs on the season – all of them ledgers. His probability to tie is at 0.013%

• Michael Toglia gets a mention with his nine ledgers, but he can only top out at seventeen this season (in part due to six ledgers from previous seasons)

• Michael Busch, Jackson Merrill, Zach Neto, Andy Pages, and Nick Gordon all have eight ledgers and range in probability from 0.015% to virtually 0%.

As you can see, none of these likelihood scores hold a candle to Ramos’s meager 1%. But there’s still an entire second half to play. Will Ramos or other top candidate get the job done? Is their a Yainer Diaz-esque dark horse (Tigers teammates Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy make interesting picks as does the Yankees Ben Rice)? My gut was positive multiple players would get 18+ last year and it was wrong. This year the same gut says no one will do it and we’ll see if it’s wrong again.