A large free agent class means opportunities abound
Before the free agent signing period opens in November, I present a way-to-early analysis of players’ likelihoods of joining the v30 Club in 2025.
Methodology
Likelihood percentages are based on 2024’s end-of-season numbers for plate appearances, home runs, and team games played. The number presented is the minimum score for each player and is based on the likelihood of getting a home run in a three-game series. If a player needs more than one opponent, the 3-game likelihood multiples itself by the number of needed opponents. As players sign with or move to different teams, their score will probably increase. Some players may move to a team that is a needed opponent and that would move them to the max out possibilities list.
As we get towards the bottom of the list, you’ll notice the likelihood score moves to 0%. This is not to say that it impossible for these players to join, it’s just unlikely due to the quantity of teams needed or their 2024 performance.
New Faces
Players marked with an * are those that have the possibility of checking off the only franchise they’ve played for after switching teams in free agency.
Top 50 Players
Pete Alonso, free agent – 48% likely to get the Mets*
Bryce Harper, Phillies – 43% likely to get the Astros
Eugenio Suárez, free agent – 43% likely to get the Orioles
Jason Heyward, free agent – 36% likely to get the White Sox
Paul Goldschmidt, free agent – 34% likely to get the Twins
Michael Conforto, free agent – 31% likely to get the Astros
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks – 29% likely to get the Blue Jays
Nolan Arenado, Cardinals – 26% likely to get the Guardians
Josh Bell, free agent – 25% likely to get the White Sox
Travis d’Arnaud, free agent – 25% likely to get the Diamondbacks
Justin Turner, free agent – 25% likely to get the White Sox
Carlos Correa, Twins – 23% likely to get the Pirates
Teoscar Hernández, free agent – 22% likely to get the Dodgers and Brewers
Willy Adames, free agent – 21% likely to get the White Sox and Brewers
Yasmani Grandal, free agent – 19% likely to get the White Sox
Gary Sánchez, Brewers – 19% likely to get the Cardinals
Adam Duvall, free agent – 19% likely to get the Angels
Jurickson Profar, free agent – 13% likely to get the Red Sox and Phillies
Joc Pederson, free agent – 13% likely to get the Tigers and Athletics
Marcus Semien, Rangers – 12% likely to get the Brewers and Padres
Paul DeJong, free agent – 8% likely to get the White Sox and Cardinals
Cody Bellinger, free agent – 8% likely to get the Orioles and Tigers
Brandon Drury, free agent – 7% likely to get the Guardians
Anthony Santander, free agent – 6% likely to get the Orioles, Dodgers, Brewers, Pirates, and Cardinals*
Alex Bregman, free agent – 6% likely to get the Braves, Astros, and Padres*
Rhys Hoskins, free agent – 6% likely to get the Guardians, Astros, and Angels
Christian Walker, free agent – 6% likely to get the Diamondbacks, Tigers, and Blue Jays*
J.T. Realmuto, Phillies – 5% likely to get the White Sox and Mariners
Rowdy Tellez, free agent – 5% likely to get the Royals and Rangers
Kiké Hernández, free agent – 4% likely to get the Dodgers and Rangers
Avisaíl García, free agent – 4% likely to get the Mets
Trea Turner, Phillies – 4% likely to get the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers
Joey Gallo, free agent – 3% likely to get the Reds and Cardinals
Kevin Pillar, free agent – 2% likely to get the White Sox and Marlins
Tyler O’Neill, free agent – 2% likely to get the Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Rangers, and Nationals
Dansby Swanson, Cubs – 2% likely to get the Royals, Angels, and Twins
Javier Báez, Tigers – 1% likely to get the Cubs and Rays
George Springer, Blue Jays – 1% likely to get the Cubs, Marlins, Phillies, and Nationals
William Contreras, Brewers – 1% likely to get the Cubs, White Sox, Royals, Angels, and Yankees
Matt Carpenter, free agent – 1% likely to get the Cardinals and Twins
Anthony Rendon, Angels – 0% likely to get the Nationals
Jorge Polanco, free agent – 0% likely to get the Rockies, Marlins, Twins, and Giants
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees – 0% likely to get the Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Twins, Athletics
Willson Contreras, Cardinals – 0% likely to get the Astros, Yankees, Athletics, and Giants
Jesse Winker, free agent – 0% likely to get the Reds, Tigers, and Mariners
James McCann, free agent – 0% likely to get the Dodgers, Brewers, and Cardinals
Alex Verdugo, free agent – 0% likely to get the Reds, Mets, Pirates, and Cardinals
Starling Marte, Mets – 0% likely to get the Orioles, White Sox, and Twins
David Peralta, free agent – 0% likely to get the Diamondbacks, Orioles, Red Sox, and Yankees
Kris Bryant, Rockies – 0% likely to get the Twins and Blue Jays
Maxed Out Players
Alongside potential inductees, we can also get an idea of the players most likely to max out. Being maxed out means you’ve hit a home run against every team except the team you currently play for.
Unlike the other list, you may notice that none of these players are free agents. These players could still be dealt in other transactions to move their score. Additionally, the likelihood score is still based on three-game series and is a minimum. However, we can get more immediately clarity, such as in the case of Brent Rooker. The A’s and Twins are scheduled to play more than three games in 2025, therefore his likelihood score is higher.
Aaron Judge, Yankees – 67% likely to get the Cardinals
Brent Rooker, Athletics – 53% likely to get the Twins
Salvador Perez, Royals – 40% likely to get the Braves
Jose Altuve, Astros – 31% likely to get the Phillies
José Ramírez, Guardians – 28% likely to get the Braves and Phillies
Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks – 25% likely to get the Tigers and Athletics
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays – 19% likely to get the Brewers and Pirates
Mike Trout, Angels – 18% likely to get the Pirates
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles – 7% likely to get the Braves, Cubs, Reds, and Padres
Yordan Alvarez, Astros – 6% likely to get the Cubs, Reds, Marlins, and Pirates
Kyle Tucker, Astros – 5% likely to get the Cubs, Reds, and Giants
Bobby Witt, Royals – 4% likely to get the Braves, Dodgers, Marlins, and Padres
Jake Burger, Marlins – 3% likely to get the Rockies, Mariners, Giants, and Blue Jays
Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays – 2% likely to get the Diamondbacks, Reds, and Cardinals
Bryan Reynolds, Pirates – 2% likely to get the Orioles, Astros, Twins, and Athletics
Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres – 1% likely to get the Tigers, Angels, Pirates, and Rays
Ryan McMahon, Rockies – 1% likely to get the Orioles, Guardians, Mariners, and Blue Jays
Josh Naylor, Guardians – 1% likely to get the Braves, Dodgers, Padres, Cardinals, Rays, and Nationals
Adolis García, Rangers – 1% likely to get the Dodgers, Mets, Pirates, Padres, and Giants
Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers – 1% likely to get the Diamondbacks, Braves, Cubs, and Pirates
Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves – small 2024 data sample due to injury; likely to get the Orioles, Guardians, and Mariners
Max Kepler, Twins – small 2024 data sample due to injury; likely to get the Dodgers, Mets, Giants, and Cardinals
